More Uncommon Fallacies: WOAR!

Every president deserves at least one discretionary military expedition (WOAR) although president Obama had to satisfy himself with continuing the two that he acquired from the previous administration. He did sanction the Syrian regime change policy, and his Secretary of State advocated a No-Fly Zone over that country, but she was defeated when she ran as his successor, and president Trump ordered the CIA (architect of the ISIS movement) to stand down.

Now all manner of Fire and Fury, awaits the regime of North Korea. According to some like CIA insider Jim Rickards, the US and North Korea are on a collision course.  That is uncommon fallacy ninety nine, there will be war but the war will be between China and North Korea, much like the punitive war between China and Vietnam in 1979. Complicated reasons, limited objectives, dubious results.

What war will do for China, is boost GDP and help to verticalize their economy, and perhaps cool off their overheated debt market. What war will do for North Korea is make them a nuclear legacy state of China. North Korea would never consider using nuclear weapons on China, and the terms of this war are implied and well understood by both countries.

They keep their weapons, but under strict Chinese control. The war should be brief, and may or may not entail regime change, and should solve the problem of refugees entering China if the US launches their war first.

Another uncommon fallacy is the way crypto-currency works, which is antithetical to financial markets, or rather the way we assume a digital currency functions. There is no reasonable way to consider a digital currency as a store of value, these currencies only exist to move your assets from one investment to another.  Where it gets interesting is when we consider digital transactions between credit based operations rather than assets. Can I use digital currency to move credit units from a HELIOC to a consumer account to a gold broker and back again? It may take some pondering.

The refugee problem in the Korean war may well be North Koreans crossing into the South. That will set up a new era of tensions over reunification, which is the passive-aggressive foreign policy preferred by the Chinese. Refugees become seeds spread by the wind, and grow up strong and true to their roots.

 

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